The probability of it raining and then being late is 0.06. There are two pathways that produce the desired outcome of being late. Add the probabilities of all desired outcomes The probability of no rain is 0.8 and the probability of being late given it has rained is 0.1.Ġ.8 × 0.1 = 0.08 and so, the probability of it not raining and then being late is 0.08. The probability of rain is 0.2 and the probability of being late given it has rained is 0.3.Ġ.2 × 0.3 = 0.06 and so, the probability of it raining and then being late is 0.06. Multiply the probabilities on the branches of the desired outcomes That is, if it rains and then we are late or if it does not rain and then we are late. The desired outcomes are those that result in a late. If it rains, the probability I am late is 0.3 and if it doesn’t rain, the probability of me being late is 0.1. Here is an example of how to do a probability tree. Add together all of the probabilities from the paths that give the desired outcomes.Multiply the probabilities on the branches of each of these individual paths.Identify the paths through the tree that contain the desired outcomes.How to Calculate Probabilities Using a Probability Tree To calculate probabilities using a probability tree: Branches for new events are drawn on the right of the outcomes which come before them.The probabilities on the branches for each event must add to 1.Draw branches for each event above each other.Probabilities are drawn next to each branch.Outcomes are written at the end of each branch.When drawing probability trees, use the following rules:
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